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It's hard to believe that the U.S. election is only a little over 2 months away. Whether readers support Kamala Harris or Donald Trump, we thought it would be interesting to look at a few likely implications for travelers of a Democratic or Republican victory. Since Nate Silver's election forecast finds that Trump is slightly ahead of Harris in terms of the Electoral College, and in particular, finds her running behind Trump in Pennsylvania, we'll start with Trump.
If Trump Wins . . .
More Discretionary Income for HNW Travelers
Trump tends to be better tax-wise for wealthy Americans. Unlike Harris, he hasn't proposed raising the top marginal tax rates or increasing the corporate tax rate. According to Penn's Wharton Budget Model, Americans in the top 95-99% of earners would on average see an additional $21,700 of income in 2026, while the top 0.1% (average annual income >$14 million) would see an additional $377,000. That buys some lovely stays indeed, at Cheval Blanc Randheli, Velaa, Laucala, and more.
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Stronger Dollar Helps Americans for International Travel
The potential for increased tariffs against China could strengthen the dollar relative not only to the Chinese Yuan (CNY) but also against the Taiwanese Dollar (TWD), Mexican Peso (MXN) and Euro (EUR). Higher prices are likely to lead to inflation, which would prompt the Fed to raise interest rates to counteract inflation, which would in turn attract international capital flows chasing returns. Keep in mind that with a “buy the rumor, sell the news” situation, the strengthening could happen particularly in the run-up to the election in September-October, with a dip once it becomes clear Trump has won; good news for September-October travel but potentially not for early November travelers.
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Fewer Visitors to the U.S. from Muslim and Some Other Countries
Trump has declared that he would expand his first-term Muslim travel ban and bar refugees from Gaza if he wins a second term. And while Europeans aren't expected to be banned anytime soon, a second Trump term could well have a chilling effect that prompts many to travel elsewhere; many Europeans had a negative view of the U.S. during the first Trump term. Trump's Europe to U.S. travel ban in the early days of the pandemic didn't help.
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If Harris Wins . . .
Slightly More Discretionary Income for Middle Income Travelers
For Americans not in the top 5% of earners, their income under Harris in 2026 would likely increase by somewhere in the $1800-$2900 range. So . . . good, but not exactly a huge boon to the travel budget, at least in the context of luxury travel.
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Weaker Dollar Could Refocus Some U.S. Travelers on Domestic Travel, Encourage Visitors
Harris might impose some trade tariffs, but not to the same extent as Trump. There would be less risk of an inflationary spiral that led to Fed rate increases, and more chance of a comparatively weaker dollar, from slowing growth and Fed rate cuts. While a weaker dollar won't keep the wealthiest U.S. consumers from traveling internationally, it could mean more domestic vacations for the less affluent.
Combined with the Harris administration's perceived greater friendliness to international allies, the weaker dollar could also encourage more inbound visits to the U.S. from other countries.
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Airline Consumer Protections Continued
The Department of Transportation, under the Biden Administration, has focused on consumer protections such as greater disclosure, eliminating junk fees, and mandating airline refunds for cancelled and delayed flights. Expect continued pressure on airlines under Harris, compared to a potential rollback of these protections under Trump.
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